The first quarter was not only solid but also better than the market had anticipated, as ASML achieved net revenue of €8.8 billion versus a consensus of €8.5 billion and net income of €2.8 billion versus an expectation of €2.5 billion. Importantly, with this performance, the company confirmed the upper end of its own quarterly range, which it had set at €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion at the beginning of the year. The stock’s reaction was relatively subdued at the start of trading, suggesting that some of the better results had already been priced in prior to their release.[1]

ASML share price performance over the past five years*

AI demand is changing the growth structure

The biggest story beneath the surface of the results is that growth is no longer driven solely by a general recovery in the semiconductor market, but increasingly by specific investments in AI infrastructure and memory chips. ASML reported that up to 51% of new machine sales in the first quarter went to the memory segment, compared to 30% in the previous quarter, a sharp shift and clear evidence that memory manufacturers are expanding capacity more aggressively than just a few months ago. The strength of this trend is also confirmed by the regional mix, with customers from South Korea accounting for 45% of sales and Taiwan for another 23%.1

China Takes a Back Seat

While China was an exceptionally strong source of demand just last year, its share of system sales fell to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 from 36% in the previous quarter. This is not just a short-term fluctuation, but a manifestation of broader pressure from export restrictions that are hampering shipments of the most advanced machines and may also affect part of the less advanced portfolio in the future. At the same time, China accounted for approximately one-third of group revenue in 2025, but in 2026, its share is expected to fall to around 20% under current restrictions, meaning that ASML will have to rely increasingly on Taiwan, South Korea, and investments in AI data centers for growth.[2]

The outlook for 2026 has been raised

The most important message for investors is that, following a strong start to the year, ASML has raised its full-year revenue forecast to between €36 billion and €40 billion, whereas as recently as January it had projected a range of €34 billion to €39 billion. Management explained this shift by noting that the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry continues to strengthen thanks to ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and the fact that demand for chips continues to outpace supply. According to published materials, the company expects revenue of €8.4 to €9.0 billion for the second quarter, so even the short-term outlook suggests that the pace seen in the first quarter is not a one-off fluctuation.[3]

What the market will be watching next

The coming quarters will no longer be just about whether ASML delivers high revenue, but whether it can sustain growth without being hampered by production capacity and geopolitics. With the discontinuation of quarterly order disclosures, investors will focus more on the revenue outlook itself, while analysts are also assessing whether ASML can meet demand for both EUV and DUV machines, which take more than a year to manufacture. This is precisely why the current results carry greater significance than the headline about a single strong quarter suggests, as they indicate that ASML remains a key supplier for the most advanced segment of the semiconductor supply chain and that 2026 may be an even stronger year for the company than it appeared at the beginning of the year.2 [1]

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* Past performance is no guarantee of future results

[1] Forward-looking statements represent assumptions and current expectations that may not be accurate, or are based on the current economic environment, which is subject to change. These statements do not guarantee future performance. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances that cannot be predicted, and actual developments and results may differ significantly from the results expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.   

Warning! This marketing material is not and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign currencies may affect returns due to fluctuations. All securities transactions may result in both gains and losses. Forward-looking statements represent assumptions and current expectations that may not be accurate or are based on the current economic environment, which may change. These statements do not guarantee future performance. InvestingFox is a trademark of CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s., regulated by the National Bank of Slovakia.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/asml-q1-2026-earnings-report.html

[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asml-investors-bet-picks-shovels-ai-revolution-2026-04-14/

[3] https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q4-2025-financial-results