Back to blog

U.S. Stock Markets' turbulent start of the new year 2024

January 8, 2024

In the early days of 2024, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn. The absence of the traditional Santa Claus Rally raised concerns, and analysts attribute the market's fragility to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions. While a correction after the strong 2023 rally is deemed normal, debates persist about the timing of the Fed's anticipated pivot.

 U.S. Stock Markets' turbulent start of the new year 2024

The major U.S. stock indexes experienced a down day, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 0.56%, the S&P 500 declining by 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining a marginal 0.03%, and the Russell 2000 sliding by 0.08%. *

Snímek obrazovky 2024-01-09 v 11.52.32

source: https://www.investing.com/*

Snímek obrazovky 2024-01-09 v 11.52.37

Source: https://www.investing.com/*

Snímek obrazovky 2024-01-09 v 11.52.41

Source: https://www.investing.com/*

Snímek obrazovky 2024-01-09 v 11.52.47

Source: https://www.investing.com/*

The Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000, which had been key performers, faced their fourth worst and third-worst two-day starts to a year, respectively. Analysts point to a potential correction following the robust 2023 rally, considering such corrections as normal. Additionally, uncertainties around Federal Reserve policy and concerns about geopolitical unrest, particularly around the Red Sea, are noted as potential factors influencing the markets.

The market has already priced in an anticipated shift in Fed’s policy towards easing monetary measures. However, analysts note that the central bank has not officially made this decision, leading to some short-term uncertainty and market jitters. The reduced likelihood of a March rate cut, reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool's data (from 87% to 64%), suggests ongoing uncertainty about the timing of the Fed's policy pivot.[1]

Despite the current market volatility, optimistic projections for earnings in 2024 provide some support to the bullish sentiment. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a strong earnings growth of 11.7% for the full year, surpassing the 10-year average annual earnings growth rate of 8.4%.[2] Differing opinions exist regarding the significance of market indicators such as Fed Funds Futures. While some, like BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski, dismiss the importance of these indicators, others emphasize their value. The ongoing debate reflects a broader trend of macroeconomic and quantitative influences in recent years.

Notable movements in individual stocks and sectors include healthcare and financials leading the Dow, with companies like Merck, Amgen, American Express, JPMorgan Chase, and Visa seeing positive gains. Conversely, Apple faced a downgrade from Piper Sandler, and Chevron saw a decline amid fluctuations in crude oil futures. Overall, sector performance is influenced by a combination of company-specific and macroeconomic factors.

The decline in stocks raises concerns for those who adhere to the January Barometer theory, which suggests that the S&P 500's performance in January correlates with its performance for the rest of the year.[3] Reports indicating a potential slowdown in the overall economy, as seen in job openings and manufacturing data, contribute to the ongoing debate about the pace of economic growth and potential impacts on inflation.

Market participants will be closely monitoring upcoming events, including earnings season, the March Fed meeting, and any developments in geopolitical tensions, to gauge the trajectory of market conditions in the coming weeks and months.

The early days of 2024 have brought about a degree of market uncertainty, influenced by a lack of the Santa Claus Rally, ongoing debates about Federal Reserve policy, and global geopolitical concerns. While bullish earnings projections provide some support, the market is navigating through a complex landscape with varied opinions on key indicators and economic factors. Investors remain vigilant in assessing the evolving situation.

 

Sources:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/stock-market-today-asian-markets-track-wall-streets-106065653

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stocks-are-falling-to-start-the-new-year-164859217.html

https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-01042024-8422156

 

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results

[1,2,3] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

InvestingFox is a trademark of CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s., with its registered office at Slávičie údolie 106, Bratislava – Staré Mesto district, 811 02. The company is registered in the Commercial Register of the Municipal Court Bratislava III, Section: Sa, File No.: 4295/B, ID No.: 36 853 054, VAT No.: 2022505419.

CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s. is a securities dealer pursuant to Section 55(1) of Act No. 566/2001 Coll. on Securities and Investment Services and on Amendments to Certain Acts, as amended (hereinafter the “Securities Act”). On October 30, 2007, CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s. was granted, by Decision No. OPK-2297/2007 of the National Bank of Slovakia -PLP, a license to provide investment services pursuant to Section 54(2) in conjunction with Sections 59(2) and (3) of the Securities Act, which was extended in accordance with the provisions of the Securities Act by Decision No. OPK-1830/2008-PLP dated April 21, 2008, Decision No. OPK-11601-1/2008 dated January 28, 2009, Decision No. ODT-5059-3/2012 dated July 23, 2012, and Decision No. ODT-9332/2014-1 dated October 21, 2014.

Read more

TD SYNNEX Far Exceeded Expectations: Revenue Jumped 38%, but Shares Fell After the Earnings Report

TD SYNNEX Far Exceeded Expectations: Revenue Jumped 38%, but Shares Fell After the Earnings Report

October 5, 2026

TD SYNNEX reported results that, at first glance, look very strong and confirm that the company is benefiting from growing demand for technology infrastructure. Upon closer inspection, however, the picture is not entirely clear-cut. Behind the record numbers lies a combination of rapid expansion, shifting margins, and significant cash flow fluctuations, which investors have begun to view with far greater sensitivity than revenue growth alone. It is precisely the difference between what the income statement shows and what is happening beneath the surface that makes TD SYNNEX’s latest quarter a much more interesting story than the headline numbers alone would suggest.

AutoZone Surprises Wall Street with Earnings: EPS Jumps 15%, but Weaker Sales Reveal Pressure on Customers

AutoZone Surprises Wall Street with Earnings: EPS Jumps 15%, but Weaker Sales Reveal Pressure on Customers

September 28, 2026

AutoZone closed fiscal year 2026 with results that appear very strong at first glance. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 5.6% year-over-year to $6.59 billion, net income increased to $931.6 million, and earnings per share reached $56.05, approximately 15% higher than a year ago and above Wall Street expectations. Beneath the surface, however, a weakness remains. Comparable sales growth fell short of forecasts, and American DIY car repairers continue to curb their purchases.1

Oracle Gains Momentum in AI: Cloud Revenue Grows 121%, Contracted Order Volume Reaches $664 Billion

Oracle Gains Momentum in AI: Cloud Revenue Grows 121%, Contracted Order Volume Reaches $664 Billion

September 21, 2026

Oracle kicked off the new fiscal year with results that once again confirmed that its transformation toward the cloud and artificial intelligence is gaining momentum. The company exceeded market expectations and demonstrated significant acceleration in the areas where it has directed the bulk of its investments in recent years. Behind the strong numbers, however, lies a question that will become increasingly important for investors. Oracle is growing rapidly, but the path to further expansion will be extremely costly. [1]

Casey’s Beat Expectations, but Shares Plummeted: Strong Earnings Overshadowed by a Slowdown in Sales

Casey’s Beat Expectations, but Shares Plummeted: Strong Earnings Overshadowed by a Slowdown in Sales

September 14, 2026

Casey’s General Stores kicked off fiscal year 2027 with results that, at first glance, appear very impressive. However, behind the strong numbers lies a story that is significantly more complex and raises more questions than clear answers for investors. The market isn’t just looking at how much the company earned, but also at how it achieved this result and whether it will be able to maintain a similar pace in the coming quarters.